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When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

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04 Nov 2025 23:08

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04 Nov 2025 16:45

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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98 forecasters

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)

Latest estimate

1.2 $

This question is closed for forecasting.

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95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

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105 forecasters

Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?

25%chance

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106 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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104 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

15.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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83 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Latest estimate

77.2 cases

This question is closed for forecasting.

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106 forecasters

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

14.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.