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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

14
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
33 comments
Research Agencies Outlook
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

37.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?

88%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1515 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
0 comments
96 forecasters

Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?

72.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)

7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
89 forecasters

What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-25)

Latest estimate
50.1k jobs

This question is closed for forecasting.

24 comments
252 forecasters

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

60%chance
51% this week