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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%

Microsoft Azure14%

Google Cloud12%

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura31%

AMEC30%

75 comments

140 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm90%

≤2 nm49.4%

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%

1 comment

25 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Conventional90.2%

Air-breathing2.1%

Thermal rockets1.2%

80 comments

621 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

83 comments

114 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

43 comments

65 forecasters

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States51%

China35%

Israel10%

5 comments

29 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Apr 2064