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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH30%

Google Cloud16%

Microsoft Azure13%

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

82 comments

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

8 comments

46 forecasters

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

Crewed spaceflight24.4

Space station visits19.2

Lunar exploration4.85

10 comments

39 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm90%

≤2 nm47%

1 comment

25 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Conventional90.2%

Air-breathing2.1%

Thermal rockets1.2%

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

4 comments

9 forecasters

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

Current estimate

60.6%

5 comments

30 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Jan 2068