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US Democracy Index

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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud20%

Microsoft Azure14%

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

AMEC30%

81 comments

624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

10 comments

39 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%

≤3 nm91%

≤2 nm50%

8 comments

46 forecasters

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

Crewed spaceflight24.7

Space station visits19.4

Lunar exploration4.7

5 comments

30 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Jan 2068

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

5 comments

7 forecasters

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

40 comments

178 forecasters

When will the 1,000th person reach space?

Current estimate

Dec 2033

1 comment

16 forecasters

Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?

65%chance