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1
comment
17
forecasters
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?
SMEE
44%
Naura
31%
AMEC
30%
1 other
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
80
comments
621
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
40%
chance
5
comments
7
forecasters
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?
1
comment
16
forecasters
Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?
70%
chance
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
4
comments
9
forecasters
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
Current estimate
60.5%
8
comments
46
forecasters
By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?
5%
chance
Experimenting With Metaculus Communities — Collaborate With Us
7
8
8
comments
Forecasting OWID Commenting Prize Winners
9
3
3
comments
Forecasting Our World in Data
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