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US Democracy Index

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How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.1%

Mixed ruling20%

Tariffs unlawful10%

Key Factors

1 comment

34 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

40 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled49.5%

OpenAI & Microsoft Win25.3%

NYT Wins ≥$50 Million14.8%

8 comments

62 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

1%chance

17 comments

12 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

Current estimate

25 Dec 2025

6 comments

8 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari79%

Deny certiorari16%

Other recommendation5%

4 comments

115 forecasters

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

55%chance

49 comments

76 forecasters

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

resultNo

33 comments

30 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance

0 comments

9 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?