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US Democracy Index

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How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.4%

Mixed ruling18.7%

Tariffs unlawful8.9%

Key Factors

1 comment

32 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

26 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

35%chance

22 comments

40 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled49.6%

OpenAI & Microsoft Win25.3%

NYT Wins ≥$50 Million14.9%

8 comments

62 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

1%chance

6 comments

8 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari79.8%

Deny certiorari15.2%

Other recommendation5%

4 comments

115 forecasters

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

52%chance

2 comments

137 forecasters

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

10%chance

33 comments

30 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance

0 comments

9 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?