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US Democracy Index

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In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 5 days

10 comments

132 forecasters

How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

Mixed ruling33.2%

No 2025 ruling24.6%

Tariffs lawful20.5%

6 comments

46 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari80%

Deny certiorari15%

Other recommendation5%

33 comments

69 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance

22 comments

74 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled53.4%

OpenAI & Microsoft Win22.2%

NYT Wins ≥$50 Million13.1%

0 comments

64 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

33.3%chance

2 comments

44 forecasters

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?

14 comments

22 forecasters

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

75%chance

5% this week

0 comments

41 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a federal court ruling in the following years?

12 comments

18 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

82%chance