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US Democracy Index

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How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?

No 2025 ruling61.2%

Mixed ruling19.4%

Tariffs unlawful10.2%

Key Factors

1 comment

34 forecasters

In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?

81%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

40 forecasters

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled49.5%

OpenAI & Microsoft Win25.3%

NYT Wins ≥$50 Million14.8%

8 comments

62 forecasters

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

1%chance

6 comments

8 forecasters

If the U.S. Solicitor General files a CVSG brief in Monsanto v. Durnell, what will the recommendation be?

Grant certiorari79.8%

Deny certiorari15.2%

Other recommendation5%

122 comments

308 forecasters

Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?

resultNo

33 comments

30 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

50%chance

2 comments

10 forecasters

Will New York Times v. Sullivan no longer be good law in the following years?

4 comments

115 forecasters

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

52%chance

2 comments

138 forecasters

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

10%chance