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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

12 comments

82 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else72.3%

Arjun Erigaisi19.8%

Wei Yi7.2%

1 comment

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

89 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Latest estimate

1731 deaths

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

87 forecasters

On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.