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Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

12%chance

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101 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

15%chance

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88 forecasters

Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last weekly reading with a Monday date in December 2025?

70%chance

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87 forecasters

Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?

97%chance

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87 forecasters

Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?

88%chance

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86 forecasters

Will the National Hurricane Center’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” list at least 15 named storms as of 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025?

15%chance

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99 forecasters

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

30%chance

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99 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

15.6%chance

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