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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments

26 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

2 forecasters

Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

4 comments

47 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate

74.9 People

Key Factors

95 comments

96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?"?

resultNo