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How many weeks of unemployment benefits will be paid in Vermont on average in each month of 2029?

17.8k weeks (13.4k - 23.9k)

1

1

1 forecaster

17.8k weeks

(13.4k - 23.9k)

Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?

85

85 forecasters

AI IPO Windfall: Forecasting Funding by Cause Area

3

What first round vote share will José Maria Neves win in the 2026 Cape Verdean presidential election?

52.9% (48.9 - 56.8)

1

73

73 forecasters

52.9%

(48.9 - 56.8)

What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on the eve of Election Day 2026?

57.1% (55.8 - 59.6)

12

12 forecasters

57.1%

(55.8 - 59.6)

Will a hurricane be active in the Eastern Pacific at any point between October 15 and October 17, 2026?

result: yes

267 267 comments

264

264 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050? → If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

1

1 forecaster

Will Anthropic have publicly released Claude Haiku 5.5 by October 16, 2026?

result: yes

258 258 comments

256

256 forecasters

ResolvedYes

On how many of the two trading days October 15–16, 2026 will US spot Bitcoin ETFs record a net daily inflow?

1 days (0 - 2)

248 248 comments

247

247 forecasters

Resolved1 days

Will Piura's cumulative 2026 dengue death toll exceed 8 by October 15, 2026?

result: no

247 247 comments

244

244 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will WastewaterSCAN's national norovirus (GII) level category be on October 15, 2026?

235 235 comments

233

233 forecasters

How many inches of snow will fall in Central Park in December 2026?

32

32 forecasters

Will the number of ERM 2026 candidate homicides reported in Peru exceed two by October 15, 2026?

result: no

231 231 comments

234

234 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?

60% chance

1

11

11 forecasters

60%chance

Will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release an AI model to the public in 2026?

38

38 forecasters

%chance

Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?

5% chance

1

8

8 forecasters

5%chance

Will Bitcoin be at or above $85,000 at the start of October 31, 2026 (UTC)?

29% chance

320

320 forecasters

29%chance

How many active New World screwworm cases will Mexico's Senasica dashboard report in late October 2026?

1972 cases (1837 - 2114)

316

316 forecasters

1972 cases

(1837 - 2114)

Platform feature suggestions

113

3.4k 3.4k comments

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

29 Aug 2027 (22 Sep 2026 - 13 Oct 2029)

224

683 683 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

29 Aug 2027

(22 Sep 2026 - 13 Oct 2029)

Will the openai/math repository report more than 300 top-line results formalized in Lean as of October 29, 2026?

28% chance

310

310 forecasters

28%chance

Will the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season's accumulated cyclone energy exceed 350 units as of October 29, 2026?

55% chance

329

329 forecasters

55%chance