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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

03 Oct 2027 (25 Sep 2026 - 06 Jul 2030)

224

660 660 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

03 Oct 2027

(25 Sep 2026 - 06 Jul 2030)

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030 → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

4

19

19 forecasters

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

80% chance

1

30

30 forecasters

80%chance

Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

3

75

75 forecasters

Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?

33% chance

1

86

86 forecasters

33%chance

Will Waymo achieve 1 million weekly autonomous rides before 2027?

40% chance

1

13

13 forecasters

40%chance

Will a new named storm form in the Atlantic basin between September 17 and September 18, 2026?

10% chance

161

161 forecasters

10%chance

Will Trump have formally nominated a permanent Secretary of the Army by September 18, 2026?

18% chance

162

162 forecasters

18%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

95

95 forecasters

Will ECDC report locally acquired human West Nile virus cases in 17 or more countries in its 2026 weekly surveillance update published around 18 September 2026?

55% chance

154

154 forecasters

55%chance

What will the top score on the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle public leaderboard be on September 17, 2026?

10.2% (8.17 - 13.8)

143

143 forecasters

10.2%

(8.17 - 13.8)

Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 on September 17, 2026?

45% chance

159

159 forecasters

45%chance

If Anthropic files a public IPO prospectus by September 17, 2026, which U.S. exchange will it name as its intended listing venue?

154

154 forecasters

What will UNE forecast as Cuba's peak-hour electricity generation deficit for the night of September 18, 2026?

2200 MW (2050 - 2350)

140

140 forecasters

2200 MW

(2050 - 2350)

Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?

158

158 forecasters

Where will GPT-6 Astra rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 18, 2026?

151

151 forecasters

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental United States before September 1, 2026?

result: no

2

18

18 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the 2026 World Cup deliver the predicted economic boost to US host cities?

39% chance

1

6

6 forecasters

39%chance

Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?

result: yes

3

22

22 forecasters

ResolvedYes

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?

result: no

2

32

32 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Which quantum pure-play stock will post the highest weekly gain from Aug 28 to Sep 4, 2026: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, or Quantum Computing Inc.?

145 145 comments

145

145 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

183 183 comments

285

285 forecasters