Will an Anthropic model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the end of August 2026?74% chance0 comments175175 forecasters74%chance
Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300 through the end of August 2026?33.5% chance0 comments167167 forecasters33.5%chance
Will Ocearch successfully ping Contender, the Atlantic's largest great white shark, before September 1, 2026?50% chance0 comments166166 forecasters50%chance
Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?32.6% chance0 comments165165 forecasters32.6%chance
How many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?1.03M likers (<1M - 1.08M)0 comments129129 forecasters1.03M likers (<1M - 1.08M)
Will the Official Loch Ness Monster Sightings Register report at least 7 sightings for 2026, before September 1, 2026?94% chance0 comments168168 forecasters94%chance
Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in under 6 minutes?73.9% chance0 comments171171 forecasters73.9%chance
What will be the Metacritic Metascore of Halo: Campaign Evolved on August 31, 2026?83 (76 - 87)0 comments152152 forecasters83 (76 - 87)
Will the total number of hospitalizations from cyclosporiasis in Michigan remain under 300 through the end of August 2026?25% chance10 comments77 forecasters25%chance
Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 100-meter dash be won by a robot finishing in under 20.00 seconds?56.4% chance0 comments167167 forecasters56.4%chance
Will the fastest official time at the 2026 World Bog Snorkelling Championships be under 1:15.00?34% chance0 comments166166 forecasters34%chance
Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?40% chance10 comments1010 forecasters40%chance
Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?41.1% chance0 comments161161 forecasters41.1%chance
Will Solana (SOL) close above $85 on any day between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no123123 comments124124 forecastersResolvedNo
Will NIFC raise the National Preparedness Level to 5 at any point between July 11 and July 24, 2026?result: yes121121 comments123123 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the CDC report at least one U.S. measles death for 2026 by its first update on or after August 6, 2026?20% chance0 comments133133 forecasters20%chance
What will be the weekly cumulative burnt areas (ha) from forest fires in the EU on August 26, 2026?606k ha (515k - 704k)0 comments160160 forecasters606k ha (515k - 704k)
Will OpenAI or Hugging Face publish a completed technical report on the July 2026 breach investigation before August 7, 2026?12% chance0 comments140140 forecasters12%chance
Will ECDC/EFSA surveillance report at least one West Nile virus death in Europe for the 2026 season before 7 August 2026?50% chance0 comments136136 forecasters50%chance
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?58.8% (57.3 - 60.7)0 comments77 forecasters58.8% (57.3 - 60.7)