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11 comment
4 comments
2 forecasters

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate
Revealed tomorrow
13 comments
83 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else69%
Arjun Erigaisi20.7%
Wei Yi9.5%

Key Factors

0 comments
86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.