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US Democracy Index

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Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

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88 forecasters

Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last weekly reading with a Monday date in December 2025?

70%chance

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87 forecasters

Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?

88%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

15%chance

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87 forecasters

Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?

97%chance

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0 comments

100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

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1 comment

97 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

Annulled

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Google DeepMind)

20%chance

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0 comments

89 forecasters

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

Latest estimate

33.4 users

This question is closed for forecasting.