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US Democracy Index

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

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95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

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81 forecasters

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

Latest estimate

231T digits

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105 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

15%chance

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96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?"?

27%chance

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106 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%chance

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105 forecasters

Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?

25%chance

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1 1 comment

5 comments

46 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

community

04 Nov 2025 23:08

result

04 Nov 2025 16:45

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83 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Latest estimate

77.2 cases

This question is closed for forecasting.