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11
11 comment
0 comments
100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
3 forecasters

Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?

99.9%chance
31.5% this week
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
95 forecasters

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments
92 forecasters

Who will win the FIDE Chess World Cup 2025?

Someone else74.2%
Wei Yi25%
Gukesh Dommaraju0.1%

Key Factors

1 comment
97 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?

Annulled