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2
comments
59
forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
0.1%
chance
4
comments
32
forecasters
Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?
result
No
0
comments
48
forecasters
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
1%
chance
2
comments
59
forecasters
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
65%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
18
comments
124
forecasters
A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?
result
No
1
comment
23
forecasters
Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?
1%
chance
20
comments
20
forecasters
How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?
Current estimate
0.568 AU
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
1
comment
46
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?
0.3%
chance
8
comments
15
forecasters
How many interstellar objects will be identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory is its first two years of observations?
Current estimate
2.42 objects
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