Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Natural Sciences

Environment & Climate

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?

result: no

8

124

124 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

70% chance

13

60

60 forecasters

70%chance

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

16

114

114 forecasters

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

result: no

38

170

170 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1090 events (781 - 1627)

8

43

43 forecasters

1090 events

(781 - 1627)

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance

5

51

51 forecasters

1%chance

Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?

result: no

34

34 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.1% chance

6

28

28 forecasters

0.1%chance

How far from Earth (in km) is the nearest celestial object with stable liquid water on its surface?

276T km (76.1T - 1.2×10¹⁵)

6

9

9 forecasters

276T km

(76.1T - 1.2×10¹⁵)

How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?

0.547 AU (0.311 - 1.1)

3

21

21 forecasters

0.547 AU

(0.311 - 1.1)

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

result: no

83

301

301 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

1% chance

11

129

129 forecasters

1%chance

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

36% chance

8

39

39 forecasters

36%chance

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27

132

132 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?

48% chance

21

168

168 forecasters

48%chance

New Solar Cycle 25 Question Series

4

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13

Life on the Icy Moons and Ocean Worlds of the Outer Solar System

15

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12

Erik Hoel & Claimed Public Figure Pages

6

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

8

Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast

12

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10