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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

105 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

15 forecasters

Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

3 comments

Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

3 comments

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

1 comment

11 forecasters

Which party's nominee will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Republican PartyUpcoming

Democratic PartyUpcoming

OtherUpcoming

15 comments

52 forecasters

Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?

resultYes

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