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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

14
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
33 comments
Research Agencies Outlook

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1515 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
24 comments
252 forecasters

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

60%chance
51% this week

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
6 forecasters

Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
0 comments
82 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

43.1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
2 forecasters

Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
0 comments
96 forecasters

Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?

72%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

84 comments
81 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?

resultYes