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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
14
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding
5
3
3
comments
Research Agencies Outlook
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
4
15
15
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
24
comments
252
forecasters
Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?
60%
chance
51%
this week
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
3
3
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0
comments
6
forecasters
Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 2 days
0
comments
82
forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-09-26 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?
43.1%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
2
forecasters
Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 4 days
0
comments
96
forecasters
Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?
72%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
84
comments
81
forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?
result
Yes
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