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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
0
comments
109
forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
14%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
107
forecasters
Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?
10%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
88
forecasters
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Low
78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)
3.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
97
forecasters
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
10
comments
8
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
12
comments
215
forecasters
How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?
Current estimate
56.3M birds
10
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
RSV
3.49
Flu
9.81
COVID-19
3.85
1 other
0
comments
98
forecasters
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
93.5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
15
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?
Adults 65+
42.9
Adults 18+
21.4
Children 6 months to 17 years
11.7
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