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US Democracy Index

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

83 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

Latest estimate

77.2 cases

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments

22 forecasters

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Moderate58.8%

High27.9%

Low (or lower)10%

0 comments

109 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

14%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments

16 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H1N151.5

H3N251.3

H5<0.1

17 comments

19 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

15 comments

16 forecasters

What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2025-26 season be among the following groups in the US?

Infants < 8 months49.8

Eligible pregnant women38.5

Adults 75+56.2

14 comments

18 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.53

Flu9.7

COVID-193.87