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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

6
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
0 comments
109 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

14%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
107 forecasters

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments
8 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
12 comments
215 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate
56.3M birds
10 comments
17 forecasters

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

RSV3.49
Flu9.81
COVID-193.85
0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

93.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments
17 forecasters

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?

Adults 65+42.9
Adults 18+21.4
Children 6 months to 17 years11.7