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23
comments
64
forecasters
Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?
4%
chance
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
4
comments
9
forecasters
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
Current estimate
60.5%
4
comments
11
forecasters
What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?
Current estimate
11.2 t
83
comments
115
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
6
comments
8
forecasters
When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?
Current estimate
Jul 2034
5
comments
7
forecasters
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?
0
comments
40
forecasters
Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?
2%
chance
6
comments
5
forecasters
When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?
Current estimate
2076
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
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