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11
comments
35
forecasters
When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?
Current estimate
2095
83
comments
114
forecasters
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
00
6
comments
15
forecasters
Railguns used in warfare before 2035?
50%
chance
6
comments
8
forecasters
When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?
Current estimate
Jul 2034
5
comments
7
forecasters
How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?
2
comments
27
forecasters
What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?
1
comment
25
forecasters
What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?
Conventional
90.2%
Air-breathing
2.1%
Thermal rockets
1.2%
6 others
6%
23
comments
64
forecasters
Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?
4%
chance
7
comments
32
forecasters
When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?
00
11
comments
72
forecasters
When will nuclear power be used for propulsion in space in a non-test capacity?
Current estimate
Dec 2033
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