Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments277277 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments469469 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments327327 forecasters30%chance
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?result: no344 comments6060 forecastersResolvedNo
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?151919 comments172172 forecasters
What will be the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other?0.3% (2.25×10⁻⁷ - 0.803)43939 comments1616 forecasters0.3% (2.25×10⁻⁷ - 0.803)
Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?1% chance223838 comments268268 forecasters1%chance
Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?0.5% chance81313 comments9595 forecasters0.5%chance
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?40% chance858484 comments644644 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?1% chance777 comments199199 forecasters1%chance
Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?20% chance343636 comments293293 forecasters20%chance
If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?Mar 2038 (18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)351919 comments165165 forecastersMar 2038 (18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)
A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?result: no81818 comments124124 forecastersResolvedNo
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?1149 events (840 - 1807)80 comments4444 forecasters1149 events (840 - 1807)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?30% chance281515 comments285285 forecasters30%chance
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?20% chance569191 comments2k2k forecasters20%chance
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?result: no104104 comments106106 forecastersResolvedNo