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condition
CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe
15 forecasters
if yes
if no
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
77%
77%
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
30%
30%
2
3 comments
3
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
Key Factor
Investment
Key Factor
Investment
‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week
17
43 comments
43
Five Years After AGI
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
20%
chance
condition
CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off
15 forecasters
if yes
if no
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
20%
20%
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
5%
5%
2
no comments
0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?
1%
chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%
chance
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
0.1%
chance
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
1%
chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
30.4%
AI-Dystopia
25.3%
Singularia
19%
and 2 others
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