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condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

15 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

77%
77%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
3 comments3
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

Key Factor

Investment

Key Factor

Investment

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

17
43 comments43
Five Years After AGI

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

20%chance
condition

CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off

15 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

20%
20%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

5%
5%
2
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%chance

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%chance

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30.4%
AI-Dystopia25.3%
Singularia19%
and 2 others