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If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?

25% chance

12

96

96 forecasters

25%chance

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

16

114

114 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

333

333 forecasters

30%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40

173 173 comments

281

281 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7% chance

18

198

198 forecasters

7%chance

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Apr 2038 (12 Jan 2031 - Aug 2055)

35

165

165 forecasters

Apr 2038

(12 Jan 2031 - Aug 2055)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

30% chance

28

285

285 forecasters

30%chance

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

15

174

174 forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

20% chance

56

2k

2k forecasters

20%chance

Interstellar Material Discovered at IM1 Site? → Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?

2

15

15 forecasters

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

result: no

3

60

60 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

20% chance

34

293

293 forecasters

20%chance

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

5% chance

3

11

11 forecasters

5%chance

CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

17

17 forecasters

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

16

16 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?

1% chance

5

57

57 forecasters

1%chance

Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?

1% chance

6

47

47 forecasters

1%chance

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5% chance

15

100

100 forecasters

5%chance

Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach "Oumuamua"?

0.1% chance

6

27

27 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

0.1% chance

4

71

71 forecasters

0.1%chance

Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?

0.1% chance

8

95

95 forecasters

0.1%chance