Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45218218 comments323323 forecasters
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance1414 comments55 forecasters25%chance
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?20% chance343939 comments294294 forecasters20%chance
What will be the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other?0.0182% (6.23×10⁻¹⁰ - 0.783)43939 comments1616 forecasters0.0182% (6.23×10⁻¹⁰ - 0.783)
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?172222 comments114114 forecasters
If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?25% chance262626 comments341341 forecasters25%chance
If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?20% chance122626 comments9797 forecasters20%chance
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?164343 comments7171 forecasters
Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?0.5% chance203838 comments268268 forecasters0.5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?45% chance384646 comments476476 forecasters45%chance
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?2548 (Jan 2068 - >9999)202323 comments125125 forecasters2548 (Jan 2068 - >9999)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments431431 forecasters40%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments294294 forecasters10%chance
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?151919 comments175175 forecasters
Interstellar Material Discovered at IM1 Site? → Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?222 comments1515 forecasters
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?result: no344 comments6060 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?1% chance511 comment5757 forecasters1%chance