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16 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

18 comments

204 forecasters

Will we find life on Mars by 2050?

10%chance

43 comments

422 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25%chance

5% this week

89 comments

1.6k forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

22%chance

20 comments

287 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

35 comments

288 forecasters

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

28%chance

169 comments

243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%

AI-Dystopia23.7%

Singularia18.9%

16 comments

108 forecasters

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

Europa36%

Mars35%

Enceladus10%

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

43 43 comments

Five Years After AGI

15 comments

165 forecasters

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will we find life on Mars by 2050?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Will we find life on Mars by 2050?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?