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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
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3
comments
36
forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
46.4%
chance
‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week
17
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comments
Five Years After AGI
43
comments
422
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21%
chance
3
comments
30
forecasters
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
45%
chance
11
comments
128
forecasters
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
5%
chance
Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
13
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27
comments
Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security
3
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comments
Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?
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Congratulation to the Winners of the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark
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