3 comments
80 forecasters
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
50%chance
9% this week
44 comments
433 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
4 comments
47 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
40%chance
3 comments
30 forecasters
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
45%chance
11 comments
143 forecasters
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
1.8%chance