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🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

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0 comments
3 comments
36 forecasters

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

46.4%chance

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

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4343 comments
Five Years After AGI
43 comments
422 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

21%chance
3 comments
30 forecasters

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

45%chance
11 comments
128 forecasters

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

5%chance

Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified

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2727 comments

Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security

3
0 comments

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

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1313 comments

Congratulation to the Winners of the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark

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