Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?70% chance55 comments33 forecasters70%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance33 comments33 forecasters20%chance
Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?55% chance233 comments9393 forecasters55%chance
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?33.3% chance533 comments3232 forecasters33.3%chance
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?43% chance1533 comments8686 forecasters43%chance
Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?0.154% (0.0291 - 0.474)301414 comments176176 forecasters0.154% (0.0291 - 0.474)
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)281010 comments164164 forecasters9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)