Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Natural Sciences

Environment & Climate

Sports & Entertainment

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27% chance

36

468

468 forecasters

27%chance

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

8

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

45% chance

5

34

34 forecasters

45%chance

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

47% chance

14

87

87 forecasters

47%chance

Announcing: AI Outlook With JetBrains, $3,000 Prize Pool

5

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

49% chance

2

90

90 forecasters

49%chance

Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?

0.154% (0.0291 - 0.474)

30

176

176 forecasters

0.154%

(0.0291 - 0.474)

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

9.46×10⁻⁴% (6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

28

164

164 forecasters

9.46×10⁻⁴%

(6.61×10⁻⁸ - 0.087)

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31

Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series

13

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5

Announcing the White Hat Cyber Tournament

12

AI Pathways Report

17

🔬FRO-Casting to Support a New Research Model

10

Recorded Q&As From Nov 3 FRO Talks

8

🇨🇳 Round 2: Chinese AI Chips Tournament

10

Announcing the Future of AI Question Series

7

The Understanding AI Series With Timothy Lee

8

Metaculus and Good Judgment Inc Launch First Collaboration

Forecast on critical questions on Taiwan 🇹🇼

10

Questions from the IARPA forecasting competition

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

17

Conditional Trees for AI Risk: A New Question Series and Report

7