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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

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88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%

Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%

High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

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94 forecasters

Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?

Both elections60.5%

Only Virginia24.2%

Only New Jersey9.5%

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61 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%

44.6%

00.1%

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100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

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97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

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106 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

16%chance

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94 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?"?

47.5%chance

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107 forecasters

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

14%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.