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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

9 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

87 forecasters

Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

86 forecasters

Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?

63.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

8%chance

2.3% today

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.