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Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

105 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

4 forecasters

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 8 hours

8 comments

45 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

12%chance

3% today

Key Factors

3 comments

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

107 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments

148 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

14 comments

31 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?