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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Google DeepMind)

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

5%chance

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0 comments

101 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

17.2%chance

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21 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

3%chance

30% this week

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100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

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Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 5 days

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87 forecasters

Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC), will the IAEA publicly report Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 at or below 396.8 kg (U mass)?

10%chance

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0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)

This question is closed for forecasting.

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106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.