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US Democracy Index

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1 1 comment

0 comments

9 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

34 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1861 deaths

5 comments

5 forecasters

Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 11 hours

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.