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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

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103 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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100 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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99 forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

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83 forecasters

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 202683.4%

1 October 2025 - 31 December 202513.6%

1 April 2025 - 30 June 20251%

This question is closed for forecasting.

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

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106 forecasters

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.