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US Democracy Index

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Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?

31.7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

98 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Latest estimate

46.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%

Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%

High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

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11 comments

60 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?

97%chance

87% this week

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0 comments

101 forecasters

Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?

95%chance

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0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

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0 comments

97 forecasters

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?

65%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.