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8
comments
61
forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
3
95%
4
4.6%
0
0.1%
3 others
0%
5
comments
58
forecasters
Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?
12%
chance
38%
this week
8
comments
16
forecasters
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft
80%
At least one person
30%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
18%
1 other
2
comments
66
forecasters
Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?
4%
chance
16%
this week
0
comments
99
forecasters
Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?
15%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
91
forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
2
32.3%
1
26.3%
3
21.9%
3 others
19%
This question is closed for forecasting.
10
comments
60
forecasters
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
Current estimate
16 Nov 2026
49
comments
30
forecasters
Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
result
No
46
comments
25
forecasters
Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?
Annulled
44
comments
24
forecasters
Will exactly 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?
Annulled
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