• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
8 comments
61 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%
44.6%
00.1%
5 comments
58 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

12%chance
38% this week
8 comments
16 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft80%
At least one person30%
At least one person—and return them to Earth18%
2 comments
66 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

4%chance
16% this week
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%
126.3%
321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

10 comments
60 forecasters

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

Current estimate
16 Nov 2026
49 comments
30 forecasters

Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?

resultNo
46 comments
25 forecasters

Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?

Annulled
44 comments
24 forecasters

Will exactly 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?

Annulled