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How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025)

Latest estimate

289 launches

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

21 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

1%chance

11% this week

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments

19 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft80%

At least one person40%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

81 comments

624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

8 comments

46 forecasters

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

Crewed spaceflight24.7

Space station visits19.4

Lunar exploration4.7

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%

23 comments

157 forecasters

Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?

resultNo

Key Factors

8 comments

53 forecasters

Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025?

resultYes