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US Democracy Index

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Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft75%

At least one person36%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments

20 forecasters

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeing80.8%

SpaceX10.4%

82 comments

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%

42 comments

6 forecasters

Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024?

resultYes

5 comments

12 forecasters

What will be Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) in 2025?

Current estimate

1.24B €

1 comment

25 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

Conventional90.2%

Air-breathing2.1%

Thermal rockets1.2%