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US Democracy Index

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Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft85%

At least one person40%

At least one person—and return them to Earth35%

82 comments

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

27 forecasters

When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?

Current estimate

Jan 2044

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

448 comments

4.4k forecasters

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.1%chance

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

6 comments

20 forecasters

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeing80.8%

SpaceX10.4%