Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments

19 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft80%

At least one person40%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

81 comments

624 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

8 comments

53 forecasters

Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025?

resultYes

8 comments

46 forecasters

How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?

Crewed spaceflight24.7

Space station visits19.4

Lunar exploration4.7

8 comments

22 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395.1%

44.5%

00.1%

20 comments

99 forecasters

When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?

Current estimate

12 Jan 2029

23 comments

157 forecasters

Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?

resultNo

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $