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US Democracy Index

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Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

5 comments

27 forecasters

When will Jeff Bezos first land on the moon?

Current estimate

Jan 2044

8 comments

24 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft75%

At least one person36%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

6 comments

20 forecasters

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeing80.8%

SpaceX10.4%

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $

93 comments

726 forecasters

Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?

resultNo