Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments

24 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft75%

At least one person36%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

83 comments

626 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments

37 forecasters

When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?

6 comments

20 forecasters

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeing80.8%

SpaceX10.4%

83 comments

115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

1 comment

6 forecasters

How many award tranches will Elon Musk earn from Tesla’s 2025 CEO Performance Award by 2036?

Current estimate

10.6 Targets reached

2 comments

59 forecasters

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

SpaceX65%

NASA25%

CNSA15%