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US Democracy Index

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Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?

99%chance

34% this week

Key Factors

5 comments

21 forecasters

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

2%chance

9% this week

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

91 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

232.3%

126.3%

321.9%

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

8 forecasters

How much total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years?

1 comment

6 forecasters

How many award tranches will Elon Musk earn from Tesla’s 2025 CEO Performance Award by 2036?

Current estimate

10.5 Targets reached

8 comments

19 forecasters

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft80%

At least one person40%

At least one person—and return them to Earth20%

81 comments

625 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40%chance

6 comments

20 forecasters

Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?

One or both remain in space beyond August 30result: Yes

Boeing80.8%

SpaceX10.4%

75 comments

141 forecasters

What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?

Current estimate

>125 billion $