Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?29% chance288 comments3535 forecasters29%chance
How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?6.27 (5.71 - 7.17)299 comments2929 forecasters6.27 (5.71 - 7.17)
What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?20.4M (19.8M - 21.3M)122 comments3131 forecasters20.4M (19.8M - 21.3M)
Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?result: no488 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?46.2 (43.7 - 48.6)322 comments1818 forecasters46.2 (43.7 - 48.6)
What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)?27575 comments3030 forecasters
What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below?21313 comments3030 forecasters
How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?11.2 (10.4 - 12.2)21919 comments4545 forecasters11.2 (10.4 - 12.2)
What will the total number of confirmed hospital admissions due to COVID in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)?41313 comments2828 forecasters
How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?128 (116 - 132)188 comments2121 forecasters128 (116 - 132)
What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18?22.6 (16.8 - 29.2)244 comments1313 forecasters22.6 (16.8 - 29.2)
How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?27.1 (21.1 - 31.1)433 comments1313 forecasters27.1 (21.1 - 31.1)
What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September?10.6 (9.26 - 11.9)244 comments1414 forecasters10.6 (9.26 - 11.9)
What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11?15.7 (10.6 - 22.1)31010 comments2020 forecasters15.7 (10.6 - 22.1)
What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 11 September?11 (9.53 - 12.6)222 comments1919 forecasters11 (9.53 - 12.6)
How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?29.9 (22.8 - 33.2)322 comments2020 forecasters29.9 (22.8 - 33.2)
What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 28 August?10.6 (9.21 - 12)122 comments1717 forecasters10.6 (9.21 - 12)
What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 28 August?79.2 (75.9 - 82.4)155 comments1919 forecasters79.2 (75.9 - 82.4)
Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?result: no33838 comments5555 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?result: yes399 comments4242 forecastersResolvedYes
In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?194 (85.5 - 377)1010 comments4646 forecasters194 (85.5 - 377)
How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?1.41 (0.376 - 3.48)11212 comments3838 forecasters1.41 (0.376 - 3.48)
The Lightning Round Tournament: Comparing Metaculus Forecasters to Infectious Disease Experts378585 comments