Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75%
21 comments
300 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
5% this week
4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
17.3%
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance