0 comments
107 forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
44 comments
434 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
21 comments
305 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
7 comments
92 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%