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US Democracy Index

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13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

80%chance

20% this week

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13 forecasters

100 forecasters

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

30%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments

36 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%

Nvidia5%

Google5%

3 comments

33 forecasters

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Latest estimate

47.1

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura35%

Nata30%

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?