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Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH16%

Microsoft Azure14%

Google Cloud12%

12 comments

31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan70%

2 comments

38 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH27%

Microsoft Azure5%

Amazon Web Services5%

2 comments

35 forecasters

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%

Nvidia5%

Google5%

6 comments

17 forecasters

Will Biren or Moore Threads be publicly traded before 2028?

Biren49%

Moore Threads47%

10 comments

28 forecasters

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

Current estimate

19 Jun 2027

2 comments

46 forecasters

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

33%chance

7 comments

54 forecasters

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

67%chance

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%

Naura31%

AMEC30%

3 comments

33 forecasters

What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?

Latest estimate

47.1

This question is closed for forecasting.