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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance

16
1717 comments
232
232 forecasters
2%chance

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024? โ†’ Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

6
0 comments
25
25 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

result: no

5
106106 comments
205
205 forecasters
ResolvedNo

ะฏะบะต ะผั–ัั†ะต ะพั‚ั€ะธะผะฐั” ะฃะบั€ะฐั—ะฝะฐ ะฝะฐ ะ„ะฒั€ะพะฑะฐั‡ะตะฝะฝั–-2025?

0 comments
1
1 forecaster

Will Ukraine's inflation rate increase to at least 15.0% for April 2025?

result: yes

6969 comments
62
62 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will Ukraine's government debt be at least 1.90 trillion UAH in March 2025?

result: no

6666 comments
62
62 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?

result: no

10
3232 comments
99
99 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? โ†’ Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

2
22 comments
20
20 forecasters

What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?

5.52 (4.99 - 6.11)

3
44 comments
22
22 forecasters
Resolved4.9

Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?

result: no

19
6666 comments
791
791 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?

result: yes

19
4646 comments
175
175 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99% chance

9
1414 comments
110
110 forecasters
99%chance

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

11% chance

20
4242 comments
152
152 forecasters
11%chance

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23
9494 comments
189
189 forecasters

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

18
1818 comments
108
108 forecasters

Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023? โ†’ Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030

2
0 comments
20
20 forecasters

Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?

result: yes

5
55 comments
73
73 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

result: no

15
4040 comments
383
383 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

18% chance

56
201201 comments
2.5k
2.5k forecasters
18%chance

Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?

5% chance

46
8282 comments
404
404 forecasters
5%chance

Ukraine Conflict Challenge Discussion

55
169169 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Wednesday, 2022-03-09

6
0 comments