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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

25% chance

2
88 comments
94
94 forecasters
25%chance

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

3.9% chance

16
1717 comments
225
225 forecasters
3.9%chance

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?

result: no

49
1k1k comments
862
862 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23
9494 comments
189
189 forecasters

Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

result: no

20
9090 comments
337
337 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?

result: no

5252 comments
49
49 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99% chance

9
1414 comments
111
111 forecasters
99%chance

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

18
1818 comments
105
105 forecasters

Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023? โ†’ Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030

2
0 comments
20
20 forecasters

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024? โ†’ Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

6
0 comments
25
25 forecasters

Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? โ†’ Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

4
0 comments
48
48 forecasters

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

result: no

15
4040 comments
383
383 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Ukraine Conflict Challenge Discussion

55
169169 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Wednesday, 2022-03-09

6
0 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Sunday, 2022-03-13

6
11 comment

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
11 comment

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-18

12
22 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-25

9
33 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for 2022-4-5

12
33 comments

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
1212 comments

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
66 comments

Top Forecasters in the Ukraine Conflict Tournament

4
55 comments

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0 comments