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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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What will happen in the Russiaโ€“Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?

4
2222 comments
200
200 forecasters

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

2% chance

16
1717 comments
229
229 forecasters
2%chance

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024? โ†’ Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

6
0 comments
25
25 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

29% chance

2
99 comments
92
92 forecasters
29%chance

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
1313 comments

Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? โ†’ Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

4
0 comments
48
48 forecasters

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?

result: no

49
1k1k comments
862
862 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

result: no

20
9090 comments
337
337 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99% chance

9
1414 comments
110
110 forecasters
99%chance

Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

23
9494 comments
189
189 forecasters

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

18
1818 comments
107
107 forecasters

Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023? โ†’ Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030

2
0 comments
20
20 forecasters

Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?

result: no

15
4040 comments
383
383 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Ukraine Conflict Challenge Discussion

55
169169 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Wednesday, 2022-03-09

6
0 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Sunday, 2022-03-13

6
11 comment

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
11 comment

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-18

12
22 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for Friday, 2022-03-25

9
33 comments

Ukraine Conflict Update for 2022-4-5

12
33 comments

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
66 comments

Top Forecasters in the Ukraine Conflict Tournament

4
55 comments