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15
comments
195
forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
1.1%
chance
2
comments
23
forecasters
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?
20%
chance
1k
comments
862
forecasters
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
result
No
18
comments
98
forecasters
Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Nova Kakhovka
6.5%
Tokmak
4%
Polohy
4%
11 others
62
comments
387
forecasters
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
0.7%
chance
90
comments
337
forecasters
Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?
result
No
90
comments
187
forecasters
Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
99%
Velyka Novosilka
99%
Kostyantynivka
85%
13 others
105
comments
204
forecasters
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
0.1%
chance
1
comment
49
forecasters
Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria?
result
No
condition
Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023?
Resolved:
No
20
forecasters
if yes
if no
Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030
20%
20%
Resolved:
Annulled
Ukraine Joins EU Before 2030
3%
3%
2
0
comments
20
20
forecasters
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