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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Ambiguous

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

5%chance

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

resultNo

Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

The Path to Controlling Cancer

8
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Annulled

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

70.5
deaths per 100k