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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

2

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

When will the FDA approve a medical device with software that is wholly AI-generated, with no human involvement?

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

←→6.9 months this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?