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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

4%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Ambiguous

The Path to Controlling Cancer

8
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Metaculus Journal Archives

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

7
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Metaculus Journal Archives

Malaria and the Historic RTS,S Vaccine

7
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Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

11
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Metaculus Journal Archives

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

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The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

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