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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

5%chance

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

38%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Ambiguous

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%chance

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Malaria and the Historic RTS,S Vaccine

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

no comments0

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

70.5
deaths per 100k