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Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2024/25

7
4 comments4
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%
15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

0%
0%
7 comments7
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

no comments0

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

no comments0
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.726

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.05
10 comments10
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

44%chance
6% this week

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

resultNo

Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

9%chance