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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

4%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Ambiguous

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Malaria and the Historic RTS,S Vaccine

7
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

no comments0

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

no comments0
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

20 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.709

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.04
10 comments10
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

resultNo