Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

✨🔝

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

4%chance

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%chance

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

5%chance

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.709

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.04

10 comments10

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?