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Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

Ambiguous

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

resultNo

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Ambiguous

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

resultNo

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%chance
4.2% this week

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

no comments0

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

4%chance

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

2%chance
2% this week