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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

62.8%chance
31.8% this week

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

0.9%chance

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance