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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

12
2 comments2

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

49%chance
13% this week

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?

Aug 2031

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance