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The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

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AI Progress Essay Contest

Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?

resultNo

Does P = NP?

3%chance

When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?

Jul 2054

Is the Collatz Conjecture true?

95%chance

Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?

92%chance

When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?

2077

What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?

2.37

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

06 Nov 2029

When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?

06 Apr 2030