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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance
4.8% this week

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

70%chance
4% this week