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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

50%chance
14% this week

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown

3
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

85%chance
5% this week