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What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?

What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?

Key Factor

Short-term holdings proportion has increased

748B $

Key Factor

Short-term holdings proportion has increased

Beyond Benchmark Rates: How Modern Central Banks Tighten Monetary Policy

10
1 comment1

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

70%chance
5% this week

Two Theories of Inflation

25
10 comments10

What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters?

What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?

7.44%

Equity Premium Puzzles

14
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

27%chance