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Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

70%chance
12% today

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

4%chance

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance50%
Other23.6%
Marco Rubio10.5%
and 5 others

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
and 13 others

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
and 17 others

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

4.2%chance

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

Tim Walzresult: Yes
Gina Raimondoresult: No
Jeff Jacksonresult: No
and 16 others