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Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.1%chance
37.9% this week

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

62%chance
8% today

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

[Short fuse] Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?

0.1%chance
16.9% this week

[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.

resultNo

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.

What will be the margin of victory in the June 2025 Democratic primary for NYC mayor?

result12.4 Percentage points

[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?

7.63
Legislators
64.3 percentage points this week

[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?

75%chance
4% this week

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

25%chance
8% this week

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

5%chance