• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

62%chance
8% today

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?

Key Factor

Trump's association with recent bill.

resultNo

Key Factor

Trump's association with recent bill.

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

5%chance

When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?

July - Augustresult: Yes
September - Octoberresult: No
November - Decemberresult: No
and 2 others

Will Casey DeSantis announce her candidacy for Florida governor before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Who will be elected President of France in 2027?

Key Factor

Marine Le Pen, associated with the National Rally, faces legal challenges related to alleged financial irregularities, which could impact her political standing.

Other31.9%
Édouard Philippe21.1%
Jordan Bardella18.7%
and 6 others

Key Factor

Marine Le Pen, associated with the National Rally, faces legal challenges related to alleged financial irregularities, which could impact her political standing.

Will Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump on July 1, 2025?

resultYes

Will President Trump issue a new presidential action mentioning the Diversity Visa before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before July 1, 2025

resultNo

Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in the United States with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo