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Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?

Key Factor

Spreading of Deepfakes

Democrats78.1%
Republicans21.8%
Other0.1%

Key Factor

Spreading of Deepfakes

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections?

Democrat Senate, Rep Houseresult: Yes
Republican Senate & Houseresult: No
Republican Senate, Dem Houseresult: No
and 1 other

[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?

Kevin McCarthy (R)result: Yes
Elise Stefanik (R)result: No
Donald Trump (R)result: No
and 10 others

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
and 17 others

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes
Kevin Hern (R)Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)result: No
and 18 others

When will 5 states have ranked-choice voting for their US senators?

Jan 2031

What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Democraticresult: 48.3242
Republicanresult: 49.79607
Greenresult: 0.555306
and 3 others

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes
Floridaresult: Yes
Missouriresult: Yes
and 12 others

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Rep Senate / Dem House61.2%
Dem Senate / Dem House20.4%
Rep Senate / Rep House17.3%
and 1 other