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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

60%chance
14% this week

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

4%chance

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance
5% this week

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No
Barack Obamaresult: No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No
and 8 others

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaskaresult: 13.1
Iowaresult: 13.2
Ohioresult: 11.1
and 22 others

Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states?

Texasresult: Yes
Floridaresult: Yes
Missouriresult: Yes
and 12 others

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?

0.5%chance

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance49.8%
Other23.2%
Marco Rubio10.3%
and 5 others