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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

62%chance
8% this week

Key Factor

Difficulty for 3rd parties to get on ballots

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?

resultYes

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

Tim Walzresult: Yes
Gina Raimondoresult: No
Jeff Jacksonresult: No
and 16 others

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?

resultYes

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

Key Factor

trumps health

22%chance

Key Factor

trumps health

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
and 13 others

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
and 17 others

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No
Barack Obamaresult: No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No
and 8 others

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Other43.2%
Gavin Newsom16.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.7%
and 5 others