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New Questions Live in $15k POTUS Predictions Tournament

40
11 comments11
POTUS Predictions

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

5%chance

Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?

17.5%chance

Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Nikki Haleyresult: No
Ron DeSantisresult: No
and 14 others

In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)?

Tim Walzresult: Yes
Gina Raimondoresult: No
Jeff Jacksonresult: No
and 16 others

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

Key Factor

trumps health

20%chance

Key Factor

trumps health

Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states?

Wisconsinresult: Yes
New Mexicoresult: Yes
Montanaresult: Yes
and 6 others

What will be RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election?

result-3.053