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condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

6 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

8%
8%
1 comment1

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singapore80%
Taiwan73%
and 9 others

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

Predicting Russia's Failure

3
14 comments14
Metaculus Journal Archives

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

67%chance

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

Key Factor

New Chinese landing barges

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

-1.53%