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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

10%chance

Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

resultNo

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

50%chance
7% this week

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

10%chance
12% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

20%chance

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00010.4%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days48.5%
91 days or more24.2%
61-90 days13.4%
and 2 others

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

Taiwanese domestic politics

Key Factor

Taiwanese domestic politics

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
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