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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

10%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

15%chance
24% this week

Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

resultNo

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

10%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

50%chance
5% this week

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00011%

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Key Factor

Taiwanese domestic politics

Key Factor

Taiwanese domestic politics

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
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