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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?

Forecast revealed in 2 days
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

12%
12%
1 comment1

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

26%chance

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

20%chance
27% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

8%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

16.2%chance
8.8% this week

Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

resultNo

Key Factor

Verification of India's claim of killing 100+ militants

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singapore80%
Taiwan73%
and 9 others

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

5%chance
4% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda